unemployment rate in namibia pdf{ keyword }

The case of college graduates engaged in job searches is a good example of frictional unemployment. The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Youth Unemployment Rate. Making your research visible helps you leap into new research opportunities. The old survey, designed during the 1930s, put the Are you working? question differently depending on whether the respondent was a man or woman. An attempt is made in this paper to examine the impacts of government spending on human capital on human development indicators like healthcare outcomes, education achievements and increase in national income in Namibia using time series data from 1980 to 2015. Inquiries: +264 61-431-3200 Suggested citation: Namibia Statistics Agency, 2015. Touny, M. A. Information in the labor market will always have a cost, and that cost creates frictional unemployment. The results show that all the variables were stationary at level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship between the variables. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment and determine the applicability of the Phillips Curve to the Namibian economy. Engaging in a search makes them unemployed againand increases unemployment. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 6(2), 269-275. In 1968, Friedman (1968) criticized the idea of a perpetual downward sloping of the Phillips Curve. Also, the granger causality results show bidirectional causation between GDP, total government expenditure and broad money supply. Structural unemployment can easily occur if students guess wrong about how many workers will be needed or how many will be supplied. This study examines the effects of fiscal operations on the economic growth and stability with the view to identifying its significance on real output growth and sustainable development. Following the great depression in the 1930s, numbers increased tremendously to reach the highest unemployment rates recorded after World War I (Benanav 2014). Therefore, the study calls upon policymakers to adopt a policy mix that can be favorably disposed towards addressing the devastating issue of unemployment, predominantly among the youth, to mitigate the adverse effects of these macroeconomic challenges. Furthermore, the variables were also found to be independent of each other. To estimate the unemployment rate, government surveyors fan out across the country each month to visit roughly 60,000 households. (PDF) Determinants of Unemployment in Namibia The Friedman natural rate theory insinuates that the economy returns to its natural unemployment in the long run. An economy at its natural level of employment will therefore have frictional and structural unemployment. The content is b 2023 United Nations Development Programme, Summary of Poverty and Deprivation in Namibia 2015. In addition, the study sought to determine whether the relationship between inflation and unemployment is short-run or long-run, and finally establish the causal relationship between the variables using various econometric analyses. Source: Erica L. Goshen and Simon Potter, Has Structural Change Contributed to a Jobless Recovery? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance 9, no. Figure 5.5 The Natural Level of Employment applies the demand and supply model to the labor market. In Year 1 the total labor force includes 22 million workers, and so the unemployment rate is 2/22 = 9.1%. When the layoff is temporary, the employer suspends the job, due to slack demand, and the employee expects to be recalled once demand picks up. The results reveal a trade-off between the variables, confirming the existence of the Phillips Curve in Namibia. University of Oxford, Department of Economics. (3) New management strategies to reduce costs may be promoting leaner staffing. 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The Namibian Mariculture: Productivity, Challenges and Opportunities They encourage firms seeking workers and workers seeking jobs to register with them. Nautwima JP, Asa AR. Daffodil International University Journal of Business and Economics, 5(1 & 2), 33-53. The government publishes regional labor-market information, helping to inform unemployed workers of where jobs can be found. Behera, J., & Mishra, A. K. (2017). Namibia Labour Force Survey 2014 Report. Where Inf represents inflation, Unemp is unemployment, and t is time period. h8VIOrC gV+ji[R6$Dgy3tK?G=g]CGt9m]74em7dz-YW*>-i@clZcSkv^SgI+8*~- WDS T1{xTqCYp]lQ{p?3qDv@. PDF Youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa - Brookings Namibia unemployment rate for 2019 was 19.99%, a 0.11% increase from 2018. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. Overall, Phillips (1958) and the Classical economists shared a mutual sentiment that the Phillips Curve exists only in the short-run, unlike in the long run. (2021). Consequently, unemployment continues to escalate with high inflation. 5.3 Unemployment - Principles of Macroeconomics - Open Textbook Library In this regard, the study failed to reject the null hypotheses to imply that unemployment does not granger cause inflation and inflation does not granger cause unemployment. Each variable is independent of the other, and, Two-way causality between inflation and unemployment. The government may attempt to reduce frictional unemployment by focusing on its source: information costs. Their results show a one-way relationship of inflation on unemployment in the third lag, and no effect of unemployment on inflation in both the short run and long run, leading to a conclusion that high rate of inflation is not associated with unemployment in Indonesia but rather by rising prices of essential goods, services, and fuel. A pairwise Granger causality test was used to establish the causal relationship between inflation and unemployment. The chart shows the unemployment rate for each year from 1960 to 2011. (2) Improved government policies may have reduced cyclical unemployment. Results from the OLS analysis reveal a bidirectional nexus between inflation and unemployment, validating the presence of the Phillips Curve in the Namibian economy. The quantity of labor demanded, Le, equals the quantity supplied. In the case of Namibia, there is a dearth of empirical investigation of the Phillips Curve within the Namibian economy. More, the linear regression equations were specified as follow: Finally, Granger causality analysis was expected to follow one of the four possible outcomes of the Granger causality test, constituting: The unit root test was performed to determine whether the data were stationary or non-stationary, using the Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (P.P.) The impact of inflation on financial development. Investigate the Long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment in Egypt. The Namibia Quarterly Economic Review is compiled by the Institute for Public Policy Research . To learn more, view ourPrivacy Policy. In the 1991 recession and then more strongly in the 2001 recession, structural changes dominated. The OLS results reveal a bidirectional relationship between inflation and unemployment, validating the presence of the Phillips Curve in the Namibian economy. We discuss these various sources of unemployment below. This has led to a rise of the concept of a trade-off relationship between inflation and unemployment (Oba & Enoh, 2020), derived from the Phillips Curve that has been a dominant focus between researchers in the field of macroeconomics since the 1950s. Method: The study applies the ARDL approach to co-integration to check the relationship between selected variables. Over the past five years, the Namibian economy registered an average growth rate of 4.3 percent. Examination of macroeconomic policy in future chapters will return to this issue. Youth unemployment rate reported all time low in 1994 with 32% from 19.4% of total unemployment and all time high in 2008 with total youth unemployment rate of 59.9% from 37.6% of total unemployment the cause of this high rate in 2008 was caused by the global economic crises and the closing down of mining operations and some manufacturing indust. Moreover, the Durbin-Watson (D.W.) measures the correlation between the residuals and estimates whether autocorrelation exists in the model. The Journal of Middle East and North Africa Sciences, Global Research Network, American Journal of Economics and Business Management, Is Monetary Policy or fiscal policy more effective in Economic Growth in Pakistan. PDF Space-time Modelling of Unemployment Rate in Namibia a Thesis Submitted Namibia Statistics Agency - The official website of the Namibia If information about the labor market were costless, firms and potential workers would instantly know everything they needed to know about each other and there would be no need for searches on the part of workers and firms. The fiscal deficit averaged 7.5% of GDP in 2021/22, as Southern African Customs Union (SACU) receipts and diamond earnings declined. PDF Namibia - African Economic Outlook Background: Money supply, inflation, and capital expenditure along with others are major issues of consideration for policymakers in developing countries given the need to spark internal demand and to encounter the government's massive fiscal obligations to alleviate poverty and achieve sustainable economic growth. The of - ficial unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds is 14.5 percent, and has been in the double-digits for seven straight . The VECM analysis indicates that capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure are positively related and statistically significant in determining economic growth in the long run. Unlike the short-run Phillips Curve, the long-run Phillips Curve holds only the anticipated unemployment rate constant and not for inflation, showing the nexus between the variables when the actual unemployment rate is equivalent to the expected inflation rate. Namibia . More than 50 million women are in the labor force; the change added more than a quarter of a million workers to the official count of the unemployed.[1]. Namibia is confronted with a high ocial unemployment rate of 51.2% based on the Labour Force Survey2008, while 83.6% of the 15 to 19 years of age are unemployed. He further accentuated the expectations theory that states that individuals expectations for economic events influence economic outcomes, giving rise to the Friedman natural rate theory, also known as the Friedman fooling theory. The unemployment rate (which in 2018 was estimated at 33.4% in Namibia based on Trading Economics 2019) can be reduced if production is increased in the mariculture sector. Namibia Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Report 2021 Figure 5.4 Computing the Unemployment Rate. The literature presents various studies that investigated the Phillips Curves relevance in different countries based on macroeconomic variables. Have You Chosen the Right Topic for Your Research Paper? Rising Unemployment in Nigeria: Public Debt to the Rescue, Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Nigeria: ARDL and NARDL Techniques, The Nexus between Consumer Confidence and Economic Growth in South Africa: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON GENERAL PRICE LEVEL IN GHANA, Impact Of Monetary Policy Instruments On Balance Of Payments In Nigeria. The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. A Var analysis of the connection between FDI and economic growth: A Case study from Vietnam after 30 years reforms. Shaari, M. S., Abdullah, D. N. C., Razali, R., Luqman, M., & Saleh, A. M. (2017). Research Leap is where business practice meets research. The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve. Keywords: Phillips Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Unit Root, OLS, Granger, Namibia. The unit root tests indicate that the variables were stationary in their level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship. What is a healthy unemployment rate in Namibia? Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. The problem of understating unemployment among women has been fixed, but others remain. The devastating effects of both inflation and unemployment continue to hinder macroeconomic performance for numerous countries. Hence, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model was performed to measure the short-run relationship between the variables. Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal employment over Economica, 34 (135), 254-281. Forder, J. Goshen and Potter point out that, for workers, finding new jobs is harder than simply returning to old ones. The results support the hypothesis that government expenditure and money supply can be used to contain unemployment. The surveyor asks if each adult is working. Values are for February 2012. The. PDF 01 The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia There is a negative relationship between inflation and financial development. Here, the natural level of employment is Le, which is achieved at a real wage e. Define and illustrate graphically what is meant by the natural level of employment. Many state agencies, for example, serve as clearinghouses for job market information. Ogbokor (2005) related his findings to the actual situation when inflation and unemployment were instantaneously increasing. Phillips, A.W. PDF Namibia QER Q4 2020 The study adopts a growth accounting framework that specifies economic growth as a function of the fiscal policy variables. It also recommends a significant focus on the determinants of inflation and unemployment since the variables were found to be independent of each other. Relate the natural level of employment to the natural rate of unemployment. None of that will increase employment, because people are simply counted as employed if they are working, regardless of how much or how little they are working. Box 2133 Windhoek, www.nsa.org.na Published 2015. Their effects are mainly aligned with savings, investment, poverty, foreign trade, and economic growth, among others (Behera & Mishra, 2017). The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve. (2018) analyzed the existence of the Phillips Curve in ten high-income countries from 1990 through 2014 using panel data analyses, such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and panel Granger causality tests. Namibia unemployment rate for 2020 was 21.45%, a 1.46% increase from 2019. Even if employment is at the natural level, the economy will experience frictional and structural unemployment. Students cannot predict precisely how many jobs there will be in a particular category when they graduate, and they are not likely to know how many of their fellow students are training for these jobs. This toolkit has been compiled in collaboration with the Directorate Public Service Innovation and This may limit the consumer spending growth in a small country like Namibia and reduce prospects for discretionary consumer categories. Asides from that, Samuelson and Solow (1960) elucidated that the existing trade-off between the variables is unsustainable since the Phillips Curve has a high probability of shifting. Overall, evidence from the analyses conforms to the trade-off between inflation and unemployment postulation of the Phillips Curve (1958) with respect to the Namibian economy. This was confirmed with reliability and stability tests using the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation L.M. This page provides values for Unemployment Rate reported in several countries part of Africa. IMF Survey: Sharp rise in unemployment from global recession. This means a decline of 0.4 percentage points in 2022. The loss of a job can wipe out a households entire income; it is a more compelling human problem than, say, unemployed capital, such as a vacant apartment. The results show an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, indicating that the U.S. economy corresponds to the Phillips Curve. Lastly, this study expanded the analysis by including the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between the variables, which was not covered in any of these early studies. Comparing the 2 Types of Academic Writing Styles, Very Quick Academic Writing Tips and Advices, Top 4 Quick Useful Tips for Your Introduction. Using a time series data for the period 1970-2012, the study tests for the presence of unit root test, using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity. Finally, Granger causality test was conducted to establish the causal relationship between the variables, and results found inflation and unemployment to be unrelated. with the unemployment rate. June 5, 2015. The result showed robust evidence of symmetric and asymmetric co-integration between inflation and government expenditure. PDF Sources of Unemployment in Namibia On the other hand, a 1% increase in direct income tax leads to a fall of 6.83% in national output. Thus, an economic expansion may have little effect initially on employment and may even increase unemployment. Most of them will find jobs, but it will take time. Efforts should be made to skew the pattern of public spending towards capital expenditure as it leads to higher growth than recurrent expenditure.

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